Brabus,
if Arup had delivered me a pre-feasibility report about the scale up of the lego bridge then, yes, I probably would have some confidence.
In terms of creating a valuation around any contract using a well established methodology of something like a dcf, you wouldn't bother with anything beyond 20-25 years for any contract. Particularly if you are running the asset life at about the same. There's no point.
I like the excitement that is created, often catlysed by the verbal seed crystals of Rupe, in this stock. It makes for some good reads.
I do see where your 2.4c comes from Brabus. I think if there is no news then the HC-like froth and bubble, inciting the darkroom paranoia in the absence of any material newsflow could easily drive the price lower. And at 2.4c, there is still money to be made if you got into the SPP. In fact at 2.4c, you would make 20% crystalised return and run with a free carry on the ESIO's. That being said, if you did that and the company went into trading halt to announce the setup of the SPV with Tincom, you certainly would be getting your stock back at those prices.
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