Exactly, Idol !! That perfectly highlights the significance of...

Exactly, Idol !!

That perfectly highlights the significance of IPL's omission. We can compare these forgone profits with the ammonia prices at the time and with the spot price that was omitted from their last announcement to gain a better estimate of the value of the latest lost production at Waggaman.

IPL gave ammonia prices in its update of 18th Jan this year -

FY '21 Realised price US$381 per ton
Q1 '22 Realised price US$666 per ton

and the S&P Global est of price as at April 1, '22 of US$1400 per ton

and IPL's estimate of the lost PAT per week for each period

Aug '21 US$5.2 million
Feb '22 US $10.8 million or, for 8 weeks, A$125 million after tax

and substituting for the latest spot price,
Apr '22 US $22.7 million or, for 8 weeks, US$182 million or A$250 million after tax.

Offsetting the massive price rise for ammonia over the last few months has been a sharp rise in US gas prices in the last month or two that would reduce the lost profit from the theoretical calculation above. (But note, the European gas prices have risen far faster, leading to plant shutdowns and even greater tightness in the ammonia supply.) Also, the April spot price most likely was not realisable to IPL over the shutdown period - the lost profit would have been the average price pertaining from the start to the end of the eight week downtime.

These calculations prove that the IPL lost profit stated in its April release significantly understate the true loss of profit from the latest Waggaman shutdown. I hope the Board apologises to shareholders in its Half Year's Results Announcement next Monday. Good governance????

As you intimated, if the April ammonia price continues for 12 months - possible - and US gas prices don't rise further - possible - and the Waggaman plant operates at 800k tpa - posssible? - then it should be contributing over A$1 billion after tax on an annual basis. (A$250 mill for eight weeks x 52/8 = $1.6 bill after tax, less something for the higher gas prices in April '22 vs Feb '22.)

Keeping the plant operational is absolutely critical and has cost us a bomb already.

By the way, we've used IPL's estimates of lost profit, so it doesn't matter where the profit arises - either in the ~ 650,000 tons of ammonia sold externally or in the 150,000 tons used internally for explosives manufacture whose price is then increased to reflect the higher cost of raw materials.