TFC (ASX) Up and away?

TFC is

Originally posted by Lies&damnlies ↑

I think that you just answered your own question. Its under valued. TFC's  is an unusual business model essentially it takes 14 years to develop a product with their first harvest being last year. In the interim period between the first planting and the first harvest the company survives by planting and managing for clients. Sorry if this is too bleeding obvious.

Over the last couple of years before any real production and including last years small harvest, its been easy for the price to be manipulated by the shorter's. The effect is that the company is under valued. To show you this effect look at the TFC chart for the last five years. Put onto the chart 50 200 and 499 EMA.

I'm going to select four time points on this chart with each time period selected being the start of a shorting season and I'll also show how far the 50 EMA fell to in that season and the lowest price achieved
29 Sep 2014 5o EMA = 1.92    200 EMA = 1.64 499 EMA  = 1.21 ( 50EMA  end of  season = 1.48. lowest price=1.21)
6 June 2015 50 EMA = 1.77    200 EMA = 1.66 499 EMA = 1.42 ( 50EMA end of  season = 1.54 lowest price 1.40)
29 Oct 2016 50 EMA = 1.63    200 EMA = 1.61 499 EMA = 1.48   (50 EMA end of season = 1.38 lowest point 1.11 )
11 April 2016   50 EMA = 1.61 200 EMA = 1.58 499 EMA = 1.51 ( 50EMA end of  season = 1.43 lowest price 1.27)

So you can see that for the last two years the dampening effect these shorting seasons have had. Essentially the 200 EMA has been flat and the 499 EMA growth has been slowed.

In those two years each years plantings are closer to maturity have grown by 2/14ths and two years of plantings have occurred. Excellent markets have been found for both the wood and oil. Not to leave out the vertical integration on the medical uses for sandalwood oils.

Last Wednesday the 6th of June the price was 1.39 and you ask why the rise to 1.51 today

Under valued???

That's why TFC is the top stock in my portfolio and I'll let it run until the Annual report comes out. Then I'll play the shorter's games again. With this years expected harvest results I think it will run up further than before.

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Hi Lies, why exacerbate the problem with playing "the shorter's games"?  Can't beat 'em, join 'em?

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