Hi Aggedor,ExpatSingapore let the cat out of the bag.  I assumed...

Hi Aggedor,

ExpatSingapore let the cat out of the bag. 

I assumed RIM and the other funds ran a fund, from which only RIM had control on what to sell and buy.  But it turns out that RIM etc. also run separately managed accounts, where they can only be serving an advisory role.  So if you, Mr. Aggedor, have full control over what to do with your BRL shares...now that is a very different ball game from having an account with RIM who then decides to what to do with your cash coming in and going out.  If you have a separately managed account at RIM, and this stock has not moved for 2 years now...and you now need cash to buy something else...what do you think you would do?  Most likely disregard RIM and sell some of your BRL shares.  That is what I mean by drip feeding.  RIM and company are not incremental buyers any more...they are incremental sellers.  That is a very important point.  Half the register (the only ones who are sitting on profits) is a seller...not a buyer now.

And this is where BRL's management gets an F.  They seem to think that as long their Singapore shareholders are fine with BRL operations, BRL share price is fine.  BRL will tell you that when they go to Singapore, their top shareholders are very happy.  Of course they are happy...but as they teach you in Economics 101, don't ask people what they think, see what they do.  And Singapore is selling. 

The market seems to have figured it out.  Why do you think there is a surge of selling in the last day of every month and sometimes a surge of buying in the first day of the month?  I have no proof, but I am willing to bet it is all Singapore origin selling and buying.

What BRL management should be doing is burning the shoe leather selling the story to whoever listens.  Australia, HK, Tokyo, Taipei, Seoul...those are the obvious cities to go to.  Why not London or New York? Even 1 fund buying out of NY will drive the share price to 15 cents, given the size of buying that can come out of NY.  But have these heads in the sand Kiwi management even ventured out of NZ and Singapore?  I doubt it.  And as anyone like me knows, you need to meet 10 investors, before 1 of them will budge.  And then there is the 5 to 1 rule...if you meet the same investor 5 times, and they still won't buy...you should forget about that investor, and move on to the next hope.  I bet BRL has not even met the same investors (ex Singapore) 2 times...never mind 5 times.

The other glaring problems with their marketing:  a) Pathetic website.  A website is the first thing an interested investor would look up.  Compare BRL with Stanmore.  Night and day difference.  b) Investor Relations. In my 22 years of looking at companies around the world, I have never come across a company which does not have an IR person.  So what makes BRL think they are so special that they don't need to adhere to global corporate practices?  The only reason is because they are low quality (don't want to show their lack of abilities), or they have something to hide or something else.  c) They won't even do a conference call after their quarterly reports.  For many investors, a lack of a conference call, no IR officer, a poor website, no insider buying of supposedly cheap shares, claims of buying with no follow through...each of these are serious grounds for suspecting the worst of any management...indeed corporate governance concerns will be raised in any country more serious than NZ.  But do Tacon and Middleton really care?  I seriously doubt they care; they must understand all this.

As a result, we have a share price which is at best supported by finally some buying from BRL (I hope it starts now that the quarterly report is out; we will know tomorrow if they bought back anything at all today, or this is just a lie).  More likely, RIM end retail investors are going to drip/force feeding the market lower.  I see no reason why we can't get down to 7 cents with the current set up.

For all those like investor jackson who keep thinking that the share price is cheap...of course it is...but with these guys in charge, I don't see why it should be higher.

As for the court case, I talked to someone involved in the actual case.  His point was that L&M won the case on the "merits" of the case...but BRL may yet win the appeal on the "technicalities" of the case.  I don't know what kind of odds to apply to either outcome...I am assuming 20% chance that BRL will win an appeal.  

I seriously suggest you all call up management and ask these exact questions I have raised.  I have repeatedly made email inquires but have had nothing but stony silence.  They think they are in NZ, they own the best mines in NZ, and they don't need to listen to foreign investors coz their Singapore investors are "happy".  Plus, with 50% in supposedly "safe" hands, they can disregard hostile takeover activity.  If enough of us start pestering them, they may finally do what they should have done a long time back...take their heads out of the sand and beat their own drum loudly.  That is the right thing to do for all of us. How hard is that?