Up cycle now, page-266

I'm not suggesting it's currently a bargain, by any means.

But comparing to pre-covid market cap, is problematic. Not only has the company been heavily recapitalized, but the cost base of the business is now cheese, whereas before it was chalk.

Pre-covid, the leisure segment margins were on a downward trend, with no obvious end in sight. This was, at that time, being priced by the market.

There's also the question of how market share, in both leuisure & corporate, will play out, going forward. FLT has been investing more in its systems (& thus burning more cash) than its domestic (ANZ) competitors. It also has other scale advantages.

There's also the prospect of travel revenues being 'front loaded' as demand surges. This is the opposite of where we stood in Dec 2019.

Of course, on the flip side, there is a lot of uncertainty, going forward. We don't know where TTV will settle, once things 'normalize'. But then, FLT was already priced as having a problematic future - pre covid.

So no bargain, but (for me) may yet surprise on the up side.