up from here, page-6

good post charlessturt,

I wouldn't want to be invested in a company that had to rely on Tamiflu sales.

However, it is ambigious as to whether the downturn in Tamiflu sales is a negative or positive for Relenza sales.

Extracts from Taylor Collusion Researchj Reports dated 11/02/08 and 29/04/08:

http://www.biota.com.au/uploaded/154/1021367_93taylorcollisonbta0607-u.pdf

http://www.biota.com.au/uploaded/154/1021323_18taylorcollisonbta0802-u.pdf

Reasons for downturn in tamiflu sales:

1.Emergence of Viral Resistance to Tamiflu® Across the World

The World Health Organization (WHO) via the European Early Warning and Response System reported in late January that a high rate of resistance to the anti-viral drug oseltamivir (Tamiflu®) in seasonal H1N1 influenza viruses was seen. Approximately 13% of H1N1 isolates have shown resistance, with up to 70% resistance in Norway;

2 Updated European Regulatory Guidance on Dual Stockpiling

Recent European Medicines Agency (EMEA) guidance provided that European governments should consider stockpiling more than one anti-viral drug (which has traditionally been Tamiflu®) to prepare for a pandemic. The EMEA noted that viral resistance will make a substantial impact on Tamiflu's (oseltamivir) usefulness and that sufficient production capacity now exists for both zanamivir and oseltamivir to meet both the seasonal and stockpiling requirements in the European Union Member States.

3 According to IMS data, Japan typically accounts for >66% of international seasonal influenza sales. In contrast to GSK, Chugai Pharmaceutical Co reported 3Q08 Japanese seasonal sales of Tamiflu® at US$12.6m, down 73.5% on pcp and pandemic orders of just US$2.0m down 98.9% on pcp. We believe GSK has gained significant traction in this market with Relenza™ because of Tamiflu® safety concerns.


It will be interesting to see both how Relenza sales go in GSK quarterly report and what the governments response to the risk of Tamiflu resistence.

Regards

SP