I don't think they'd do a share buy-back. Stokes from memory has around 40% of the stock and any buy back would, I assume, be problematical because he won't sell back shares at these levels and would, as a result of fewer shares on issue, move over the 40% mark which is the ceiling before an offer required. That's how I remember the regulations anyway. Correct me if I'm wrong. I don't think they'd pay a $100m divi because they have always wanted to keep powder dry for accretive acquisitions. My guess would be more like 2c, but even this level means a 5% plus yield, from a very low payout ratio, leaving good potential for divi growth. A 2c dividend wouldn't put a dent in their free cashflow, but gets income funds looking at them again and would put $13m in Kerry Stokes' coffers.
The bottom line is that they can easily afford a meaningful dividend at these levels whilst maintaining the ability to pay debt down quickly AND retain cash for acquisitions. Best fundamentals for a long time and way too cheap on valuation
SWM Price at posting:
38.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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