Hi Lev.I have sought to piece together what I think is the...

Hi Lev.

I have sought to piece together what I think is the consolidated picture over the past few months, so FWIW, here is my view:

Revenue - I am pessimistically assuming FY23 revenue of about $1,540m and I also see that Ord Minnett recently released a report forecasting revenue at $1.572m (so, getting close to your $1.6bn figure). I have factored in the first half revenue decline in my figures and assume Ords have done the same. Bottom line is we will probably see something around the $1,550m+ mark.

Expenses - I thinking you are being a little too optimistic at $1,200m for costs. I have $1,247m plugged into my modelling and i see that Ords are working off $1,276m.

EBITDA - Interestingly, both Ords and I end up at almost the same place on EBITDA - I am at $293m and Ords are at $296m. Both numbers being somewhat less than the $350m to $400m EBITDA range you mentioned.

We will know soon enough. I would be happy to see guidance for FY23 to a $300m figure, as that still places this as a very good buy.

One point I would make which was interesting from the Ords report - they are of the view that SWM have no economic moats whatsoever and reflect that assessment in a forecast declining EBITDA in FY24 (to $286m) and again in FY25 (to $269m). Whilst I largely agree with this moat assessment as an overarching perspective, I also see that some of their growth assets are providing a level of revenue diversity and strategic flexibility that starts to both offset that assessment and also offset any "inevitable EBITDA decline". It is that general market "EBITDA decline" assumption that I think is what is primarily holding them back (whereas NEC has a market perceived growth asset in Domain). If SWM can successfully shake that perception off and demonstrate that the growth elements to the business offset any structural declines in the FTA and print business, then we will see a re-rate in the stock.