Although I think the selldown was justified post-results, I think it is overdone. The market has been on a decline for the past week, and so has the price of SWM and not all of it is to do with the results.
At 32c, with EPS of 9.2c, the P/E ratio is 3.47. What does the market tell you? Even if its revenue is halved, you still get a P/E of 7, which is very reasonable - this is a national broadcaster, with growing membership and growing audience and long-term sports right locked in. And will that 50% drop in earnings eventuate?
I get it that the economy will go through a rate-induced slowdown and that advertising activities will drop, but is the market so pessimistic that they think this company will disappear in a few year's time? Or that costs will be so high that it will gobble up revenue and leave nothing for the bottom line? Whilst this is possible as the costs are locked in, if it gets that bad, then not only will it affect SWM but the whole economy will be in the toilet anyway. The fact that only SWM is punished to this degree creates short term opportunity to add to the portfolio. Which I did today. Let's see how it travels from here in a year's time.
SWM Price at posting:
32.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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