up-ramp, down-ramp: a cognitive study

Hi all,

I am a very long term CTP shareholder. I am heaviest in the FPO, but have very significant holdings in CTPOA, and am accumulating CTPO; moreover I have participated in every rights issue to date. I have bought at nearly every price level Central has had to offer, and in doing so have seen more posts than you could count pertaining to so called facts and fiction. It honestly grates me that so many people on these posts take such a "extremist" views, clearly born of hardcore ideology one way or the other.

The predominant philosophy of the Up-ramper is that of supreme optimism. They believe the story to be close to faultless, and are willing to believe in the company regardless of setback or failure. Often described by Down-rampers as being of blind faith and stated to be obscured by the fabled "rose coloured glasses". The primary argument an Up-Ramper clings to is the phenomenal potential of the company, and the simply staggering numbers referred to in company objectives. They believe:
1) amassing the largest tenement conglomeration in the country was an overwhelming success
2) identifying a dynamic and longevity inducing diverse energy targeted portfolio has assured value in the company
3) The board has guided the small cap through the precarious waters of "Minimum Drilling Commitments" and the Global Financial Crisis (which may or may not be over.
4) the Convertible Bonds were indeed a saving grace for the company at the depths of the negative market condition during which time cash flow was maintained despite the difficulties of raising capital.
5) the farmin partners are evil and are attempting a coup to stall CTP and manipulate the company to suit their longer term ambitions and time-frames
6) Upper targets in Gas, Oil and Helium will all be reached as well as a nice CSG and UCG resource
7) CTPOA will be in the money before the June 30 deadline
8) CTP will hit $15

The Down-ramper is the decidedly more cynical shareholder, who would rather refer to him or herself as "realistic". This is an ethos born of guardedness and conservatism. These shareholders have either been burned before, or have witnessed enough in their time to be cautious. They have genuine belief in the company (otherwise they wouldn't be a shareholder) however have been jaded by certain events in the company's history (both past and recent) and question many decisions of the management and board. They believe:


1) CTP's potential is probably overstated, however no less incredible.
2) The management to date have nothing to show for the years since the original float
3) the company has wasted countless millions of investors' money over the years without really showing tangible results in the form of JORC etc.
4) The convertible Bonds are simply dilution and serve no real purpose since the worst of the crisis is apparently over and we've conducted a capital raising
5) the Capital raising was ill-timed and if necessary, should have been completed back at $0.15.
6) The targets in Gas, Oil and Helium are far more likely to be a fraction of the suggested target
7) these targets would be easier to digest if a discovery had been made in the 6 years the company has been puclicly listed
8)CTPOA are deader than Lara Bingle's dignity
9) CTP will be lucky to get back to $0.15

There are undoubtedly countless more for both parties, but you get the point.

What I am getting at is there is no need for extremes. The way I see it (and I really find it difficult to fathom otherwise):

1) CTP has actually done well to survive the conditions that have sunk many a small cap in the last 2 years.
2) Blamore was a failure despite the trace elements of oil
3) The role of the Department of Mining's "minimum drilling requirements" and the time-frames for each tenement should not be underestimated in their effects on drilling schedules and targets.
4) The convertible bonds definitely helped during the crisis, failed when the SP was faltering at $0.15, but have now become important again as farmin partners' money has dried up and cashflow is again stuttering.
5) the latest capital raising has destroyed the short term SP and in many ways, CTPOA.
6) it was necessary nevertheless
7) Ooraminna-2, Johnstonne/Surprise and Magee are what many of us have been waiting for, for up to 6 years
8) John Heugh has made mistakes
9) John Heugh has done much right and many may well be singing his praises if they come good with Ooraminna-2
10) CTPOA's have the slightest of chances of being exercised, but thats why the latest CR was necessary - because you certainly cannot come close to counting on it.
11) The Phase One program looks to be neutral at best, failure at worst, again despite the traces of oil.
12) the MHL trading farce hurt the company's image significantly, despite turning a profit
13) We are only now realising just how much can go wrong in attempting to take a Junior Explorer to Development and Production stages
14) Phase two really is the final straw for the majority of shareholders
15) Each drill needs to be taken one day at a time, and the results digested as they come, rather than expectations inflated, or failures lambasted
16) The helium story looks very intriguing, and will be a great way to bring in Christmas given some success in the earlier Phase Two activity


Basically, you need to look at each event as it occurs then assess accordingly, and if CTP is failing to live up to your expectations, you really need to analyse if the potential is worth the trials. Many more of those to come, and hopefully rewards to those who wait. Whether you're a down-ramper or an up-ramper, if youre holding Central then you're waiting for Phase Two. It begins on May 1st, assuming the Rig is secured and on time. The most pressing matter right now is securing the rig for this drill. This is the biggest threat to the company right now, and if we are to place any faith in that smallest of possibilities that CTPOAs will be exercised, then 1st of May needs to be secured. We will all be in the same boat soon enough. Decisions will be made, and CTP itself has banked on the success of Ooraminna-2, and subsequent drills at Johnstonne/Surprise and Magee. If Ooraminna is a failure, then the Down-rampers are justified in claiming its money wasted, however if it is a success, then the Up-rampers will toast to JH and his prowess.

The truth is, neither is 100% accurate, as no single management decision (beyond something cataclysmic), or economic blip is capable of writing the entire history of a company. The external forces are unimaginably numerous, with push and pull factors everywhere. They all steer the company and have worked with or against management decisions. Ultimately we need to decide where we stand and try to keep a more neutral eye on proceedings. Call a spade a spade, but then decide how much that spade has deviated the end result. I am a believer that the end justifies the means, and the road to glory is never straight.

Its all just my opinion, and of course you all need to DYOR and make your own decisions. Just try and temper the excitement (positive or negative)

Thanks for reading

RB

Note:
Just for the record, and for those who are curious, here is a small snapshot of what I hold and am bullish on:
AGO, AQP, AQR, BCI, BRM, CDU, CEY, CCL, CNX, KCN, LLC, QBE, CTP, MZM, NAB, NCM, MOL, QAN, PLA, MTN.