re: another sucker rally in the downtrend
Can never tell with the funny fickle market what the shareprice will do.
Financials good?!?!? Total revenue of just over $4mil and costs for the year in excess of $30mil.. loss will be at least $26mil compared to $13mil loss last year.
Outlook still poor with many hurdles ahead.
Even if they slash the cash burn by 30%, this will eat up all of the remaining cash in the next 20 months when the bondholders again get the option to demand repayment. Unless they can get some decent sales, and get the cash in from those sales to top that up along the way.
CMQ keep talking up the potential market size and the pie in the sky that could mean, but so far the hard sales results in markets where the product has been approved for sale for over 12 months suggest otherwise. Some people out there are still clinging to the hope that regulatory approval and getting plant to 100% capacity will save the day.
Even with their own plant at 100% output, and if they can sell 100% of that output, and if they slash cash burn by *50%*, they will only just, maybe, be in a breakeven situation. Going forward beyond that, they want to contract out manufacture and distribution to other parties, so say goodbye to at least 30% of their margin for starters. Plus a delay of at least 18 months for new plant to be built.Investors won't have the slightest possibility of a hint of a dividend return for at least 3 years, and that would only be if CMQ could demonstrate strong sales and demand right now. Without that, push your dream out at least 5 years.
And if things do actually start looking OK, your holding will be diluted by almost 50% when the bondholders convert their bonds.
In short, anyone paying 30c for shares now will have to be very very patient and wait a long long time *if* everything goes as well as it could. In my opinion you'd be better off sticking your money in the bank for 5 years, you'd earn more interest even at the current paltry rates.
On fundamentals, the share price does not stand a hope of getting anywhere near $1 until they are selling around 100T of API per year. On fundamentals, dreams of of the shareprice being $5+ any time soon are just that, hopeless dreams. Still the market is a funny beast, they used to be valued at this price when there were *no* fundamentals to underscore that value, just the deliberately misleading announcements from the company.
Have things *really* changed?
CMQ Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
