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JWB1985

4,018 Posts.

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19/01/15

13:52

Post #: 14604656
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Originally posted by Sprout ↑

Hi Arguls & Cougartrading,

Apologies for lack of commentary but I've been away for a few weeks. Back on track now. Arguls, unsure if your question is a result of the post I made to kelsieoo. So first up Ill explain my rationale on both where I think PYM can be and why I , in a polite manner had a go at kelsieoo. I think PYM are in a solid position. Yes, we are waiting for some news on results from the wells they have recently completed. it is frustrating waiting. But I can tell you that I have sat waiting for results from similar wells in my anticipation in the past many times. Why does it take so long? Well, the best answer is that they an awful lot of water and frac fluid goes into these wells to stimulate the rock. The Canyon Sands are not a water drive formation and as such you can expect that all water coming out of the wells has been injected as part of the frac process. You are at the mercy of the formation as it produces back that frac water. So we don't know publicly how much frac fluid was pumped it and what propent they used and what pressure the wells are under so its pretty much impossible to work out what the rate of flow-back of fluid will be. All we can assume is that they are flowing back they water and as they get closer to pumping out what they pumped in the oil cut should come in and increase. You would assume that we are a few weeks away from this still. There are three wells and the last was being fracced in late Dec , possibly early Jan. The other reason you don't see exactly what they are doing is that they have competition all around them and why would you tell the world how you are completing your wells. This may work against you if you were a cashed up group and there happened to be an asset next door you wanted to buy. You would be increasing the value of that asset. Thats my theory at least.

Prymes Cash Position - the beauty of this company as it stands is that they are in the drivers seat. Drilling and completion costs will be taking a dive, The rate of rig usage is declining dramatically so the cost to drill a well will come down as well , its a simple supply demand story. Those operators who are in the marginal shale play areas whose cost per BO range in the $50 plus will be cancelling every contract to drill they have. trust me, there are a lot of these companies in this position. So as time goes on PYM can lower drilling costs by simply playing the job starved drillers off against each other. If you look back to 2009 I think there was close top 40-50% of the US ricks stacked and in yards. At that time drilling comps were quoting breakeven rates just to keep their comps going. So as far as the actual PYM cash position - I think we are safe and we should see slow burn.

My Desires for PYM - I hope that PYM read this blog, I know a lot of Directors don't due the amount of BS that is either said about them or the level of untruths is just too much to bother with. Either way, I hope they read it. I'd love to see PYM buy some production. Ive been looking at asset sales and there are now some small fields that are ripe for the picking. While you are paying the $50BO price today against a possible $15 discovery cost per BO you don't have the safety and the low risk in the latter strategy. Id love to see them pick up a 100 BOPD conventional field with some workover and some PUD drilling opps. Oil price will turn and when it does the mad scramble to acquire these kind of assets in amazing.

KelsieOO - comments. suggestions form various posters that this company should go tech when they have posted negative views to that effect when another O&G company has gone tech leaves me bewildered. Its the same mindset that trash talks the directors of a company when it has not performed. I just dont get it. Sell out, move on or at least add positive solutions that you hope those directors may see and or listen to. I am constantly on the phone calling companies in the O&G space asking what they are up to. I think what most posters miss is that if they are a shareholder they are entitled to call and speak with the MD. Its the best way to find information I've found. Management of these small cap companies take risks because they are paid to take risks. Look at the success rate in the Jr O&G plays. Its very very very low. It is the paradigm of the junior plays. Why trash talk management for taking the risk that we all invested in? Why not pat them on the back for coming back day after day to try again, face the music and possibly be disappointed all over again? So, after looking at what the aforementioned poster had said in a few blogs I wonder if he/she has ever walked a day in the shoes of those he/she has taken issue with? The oil and gas game is a hard hard hard game with very few winners. As I say, its a hard job, pat these guys on the back. Im a backer of PYM and love their tenacity to keep going and going. When you win, you really win. Thats why we all invest in this space.

These are my views and my views alone. We all need to read and research for our own investments.

S.

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Nice post and I share alot of your views. Do you have any idea what our cash costs/bbl will be from these conventional wells?

Last edited by JWB1985: 19/01/15

PYM Price at posting: 0.7¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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