Upcoming DFS Speculation for Okeip and Prieska, page-4

I personally think the additional factors could impact the final NPV outcome:

1. Updated Cost Inputs (OPEX & CAPEX)

Inflation over the past four years could impact operating and capital costs.

Energy costs, labor, and materials may have increased.

If CAPEX stays at ~A$60M, it remains highly attractive, but cost escalations could erode some of the uplift in NPV.

2. Metallurgical Recoveries & Process Improvements

As you mentioned, if no additional tests have been conducted, recovery assumptions remain unchanged.

Any improvements in processing efficiency (or confirmation of previous estimates) could further boost project economics.

3. Financing Costs & Potential Dilution

How Orion funds development will be critical. If significant equity financing is required, dilution could impact per-share valuation.

A favorable debt package (e.g., project finance) could enhance returns.

4. Permitting & Timelines

Any regulatory delays could push out cash flow timing, reducing the present value of future earnings.

5. Updated Mine Plan & Reserves

If extensions increase mine life, the uplift could be even stronger.

If new drilling adds higher-grade zones, it could further boost NPV.

Your estimate of A$360M NPV seems reasonable if costs remain stable and recoveries hold up. If Orion confirms strong recoveries, secures efficient funding, and keeps costs in check, OCP looks highly undervalued relative to Orion’s market cap.