With the interim update I thought I'd put my thoughts out on the...

With the interim update I thought I'd put my thoughts out on the risks and rewards of ATH over the next few months:

although there have been several failures in the past in MSA trials, I feel this team has been quite diligent and calculated in how these trials have been setup. As several trials have failed in the past due to poor patient selection, the natural history study has allowed us to differentiate Parkinson and MSA and stage the MSA patients correctly. As Parkinson has a slower development rate, the right patient selection ensures patient that might look like non responders to the molecule (due to them having Parkinson's rather than MSA) will not adversely skew the data.

Futher, having a open concurrent trial is enabling the team to choose endpoints that satisfy the FDA whilst being clinically achievable. Imo it is a little risky to have a more advanced msa trial but I don't imagine they would be allowed to run a open arm with the same patient cohorts to the RCT.

The slightest sign of efficacy in the interim open arm and you wouldn't bet against the RCT.

in terms of share price in a success case, I see it going the way of Annovis bio in 2021 (before their ph2 fail). On the Nasdaq, they have 9m shares (similar athe ADRs) and the SP went from 9 to 119 ,peak from march to July 2021. That would make Athe ADRs around $27 peak or 6-7c per share AUD equivalent. Market forces along with arbitrage should see a big move up imo.

note, there are 14m worth of unlisted options this August. If the trials are smashing it, is it worth waiting to Sept to release results so any future cash can be raised much higher than the 0.007 options??

as always imo