Upcoming Quarterly Report, page-4

I would suggest strongly you read transcript of a few Q CC when REO prices change quickly. AL has repeatably explained there is about a 120 day delay from market price to changes in revenue. Causes are the same as all companies. Contracts have delays built in. People not under contract have to place orders and it takes time to ship. Even people as diverse as AUS and I pretty much agree there is a 90 to 120 day delay between Street price and revenue. So Q1 is more likely to show the big Revenue jump. AL has referred to this in numerous conference calls. I Bring this up so people will not be disappointed.
The Q report will quickly be over shadowed by the H1 report. Because there is lots of hits to the bottom line I expect it to be negative. Big question is how will it compare to last half. Remember that Lynas lost money last year. They made money in H1 but H2 loses were large and resulted in loss for year. Could you tell me which of these factors will not be present in H1 2021? The only thing that adds to stock holder value is Profits, that is real profits not EBIT or EBITDA. AL took over in SEPT 2014 If we ignore what the loss in 2015 and only look at FY 2016 - 2020. She has loss over AUD 100M. The company has plenty of cash now to implement 5 year plan, not by earning it!! Again they resorted to selling stock, further diluting all shareholders. AUS posted many times before the stock offering any further dilution and he would be out. I think he is now out because he understood what is happening and impact of further dilution.

Last year they had a loss of AUD 19M and a total Loss of 32M if we add the 24 M they made in H1 to this that is a total loss of AUD 56 M for H2. What do you expect to change for H1 2021??? Yes there was a production shut down but what do you think impact of that was?
Annual report https://www.lynascorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Lynas-Financial-Report-for-the-year-ended-30-June-2020.pdf P&L on PG 40
H1 '20 report. https://www.lynascorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/200228-Lynas-Interim-Report-31-Dec-19-2035823.pdf P&L on PG 13

Traditional Mining and manufacturing companies have a PE of about 10~ 20 and some time in future that will be Lynas’s. Lets use 20 for Lynas’s PE. To Support an AUD 6 share prices. They have to earn 0.30 a share x 900M shares means they have to make AUD 270M / year. They have never made more than AUD 60M. Lost money for their entire history and another 100 + million over last 5 years. Read the volumes forecasted in the 5 year plan. How much higher would prices have to go to earn AUD 270M. What would those prices do to demand. REO PMs are the best solution for the money. There are plenty of alternatives. None of the Tesla’s before model 3 used PM based motors, they were 3 phases. BMW for their pure EV does not use PM's. Prices can only go so high before people use alternative tech. Yes non PM are a little bigger and heavier and slightly less efficient, these differences are small. REO does not have unlimited demand it is price sensitive. Just look at a 10 year chare of NdPr to see how volatile it is https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/neodymium.

PS slightly less efficient is 95% vs 97% for PM’s Not noticeable to end customer.

Both CE and LA prices are down over last couple of years. these eliments are over 50% of Lynases mine. Because of very low prices they do not sell all they make some is thrown away after seperation. It still cost money to mine and do the intial seperation. to make the NdPr, ND and PR.