The Q2 release due in 2 and a bit weeks is probably the most important since I have owned this stock (2015). If growth sticks to the trend established last quarter, and if cashflow is positive, I think we will see another substantial jump in price. If growth tapers, and cashflow is break even (the old usual where a small, immaterial loss is booked) then I think the market will be negative.
I think it is too early to tell if the Arrow partnership will be a success. It will take several quarters for users to try out the service and begin trusting it to put volume through. But if there are some figures showing marketplace volumes through that channel I will be pleased.
I would like to hear about other potential corporate partnerships. I know Matt has mentioned one of the big consulting groups, and it would be very positive to get an update. I would also like to hear about global scale businesses using the platform for their internal needs. If they can crack the process to let a middle manager in a branch office streamline her day by outsourcing grunt work like preparing reports or graphs or manipulating file formats or reviewing agreements - or any of the hundreds of tasks that could be outsourced but currently aren't because they are ad hoc or infrequent and the process barriers to setting up outsourcing are too high - then we will have a company with phenomenal prospects. I think the problem is part technical and part commercial, the platform needs to be trivially easy to use for non-experts, and it needs to offer rules and controls so the same middle manager doesn't blow the budget getting logo revisions or outsourcing the quarterly financials insecurely....
On the Escrow side, more example customers would be good, as ever. I'd love to hear about customers using Escrow and Freightlancer together to pay for their shipping and acquisition in one go, making a vertical integration. I'd also like to get a feel for whether the Escrow payment module is growing steadily. I think using it as an alternative to paypal or credit cards is the best prospect for growth in that business, and the business model means fees can be lower than credit cards, and more reliable for sellers.
I think it is a great time to become a FLN shareholder, if the numbers look good, I expect a substantial rerate. I won't predict numbers, but if they are similar to last quarter, it will be a big win. I don't necessarily think it is the best use of funds, but a similar quarterly profit could support a dividend of 2 or 3 cents. If that came with growing revenue too, it would certainly put a huge rocket under the share price to $1+.
FLN Price at posting:
84.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
