Fair enough ellaishani,
I've no problem with you calling it however you see it. but I don't agree with your notion that delays to the blockbuster LNG projects are good for LNG ltd's prospects. I have already explained the logic behind this and yet you see it the other way around. If they are running late this does not mean they have spare gas to form a long term tolling deal with LNG.
And imo Shell and Petrochina did not spend $3 billion on Arrow, then another $500 million on BOW, and also commit to a huge spend to get fields developed, gas pipes built, progress Curtis Island EIS etc, only to settle for 1.5 mt p.a or 3mt p.a plant at Fishermans Landing. If that was their game then they have already wasted a lot of money and that is not how Shell generally operate. As i said I could see Shell buying out LNG ltd to take the site and get early revenue, but if that is a possibility it isn't being hinted at within the LNG quarterly. The quarterly reads like they are still attempting to scratch together the extra gas they need if they succeed in buying WCL. They say they have two other parties they are talking to, one must be MPO and those assets are not going to get them far by 2014 without access to Meridian's infrastructure and the 3rd party is unknown? Hope it isn't ICN or BUL!
Regarding the cap raising I had thought it was WCL's intent to get LNG to make a concrete offer rather than dissaude them by running the spp..but maybe I have that wrong.
What encourages me greatly is how the share price is holding at a significant premium to the capital raising and there were 100 million new shares issued. Someone is accumulating as volumes have been well above average and we've climbed from 37c after the shares listed.
Putting two and two together, we have LNG making these assertions that they have other irons in the fire and then someone is buying quite large parcels and holding volumes up around a million a day ?. You could stay under 5% and still buy up to 17.7 million shares.
Even if LNG does go to Shell or just fail to stitch up a deal , i think with recent media reporting the market has woken up to the fact that gas is going to be scarce in Qld and WCL has quite a good asset having shown it is able to turn Meridian into a productive csg field. That is what matters and as I've been saying for quite a while, the stakeholder problems relating to csg in the Surat Basin (which is hindering both BG and Shell), these problems make WCL more valuable.
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