Thanks AX-E, I don't think the optimistic case could be put more optimistically.
I appreciate the confident thoughts but disagree with your general themes that a) the process was a 4-6 month one, b) SFX management had/have no intention of keeping shareholders updated, c) that SFX should be relaxed about a falling share price into the sell-down result, and d) that a good JV deal is almost guaranteed.
As posted before and quoted from the SFX corporate adviser update 14th Jan "Sheffield will continue to keep shareholders and other stakeholders informed throughout this process". Unlike say Crown leaking confidential takeover talks with Wynn, SFX have publicly entered into a structured sale process and at the beginning said they would keep shareholders informed. Not just did SFX plan to keep shareholders updated, buying participants would have expected news on the process stage and time frame would be made to the market and not just those buyers involved in the process or commercial stakeholders like the Chinese off-takers.
I'm not suggesting that SFX ramp the price, but for many reasons it suits the company and shareholders to have the price hold at reasonable levels given a CR is almost certainly going to be part of the eventual funding package. Shaking out "uninformed nervous shareholders" who are not privy to how the structured sale process is going is hardly fair to those shareholders shaken out or existing shareholders who want the eventual CR to be as undiltuing as possible. This isn't a Queensbury rules boxing match, it is not just reasonable but expected that management do whatever is their power to support shareholders and the share price in the face of manipulation and tree shaking by various parties for whom a lower share price is beneficial. Other than the concerted effort back in March 6th across HC and other 'news' outlets, management has been conspicuously and unreasonably quiet imo. There is plenty that can be said without breaking confidence on details surrounding specific companies involved, anything that generates competitive tension is a good thing.
To my mind the company clearly guided when the sell-down process was due to be finalised in the Finfeed puff piece also of March 6th, specifically "While it is impossible to accurately predict the timing of a funding statement, Blue Ocean Equities’ analyst Stuart McIntyre is of the view that it will occur in the next 6 to 8 weeks.". There is no basis for a longer sale process, or even that this represents the beginning of the main game. 3-4 months is plenty including due-diligence given an independent expert and Taurus have already been through the DFS like a dose of salts. Your confidence that an eventual good deal will eventuate and of management's ability not to trip up because they are loaded up with performance shares is admirable but obviously at odds with the share price action at this late stage of the deal's timing.
Regardless, I have tied myself to the mast at 63c average and will ride out the storm. We both agree the upside is greater that the downside from this price, even if we see quite different odds on the outcome.
Cheers
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Last
18.0¢ |
Change
0.015(9.09%) |
Mkt cap ! $67.11M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
16.5¢ | 18.0¢ | 16.5¢ | $89.77K | 540.3K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 2091 | 18.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
19.0¢ | 774 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 2091 | 0.180 |
1 | 774 | 0.175 |
2 | 336920 | 0.170 |
3 | 343340 | 0.160 |
1 | 90000 | 0.150 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.190 | 774 | 1 |
0.195 | 774 | 1 |
0.200 | 5655 | 1 |
0.235 | 15715 | 1 |
0.240 | 20000 | 1 |
Last trade - 14.57pm 02/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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