On the comsec website the earnings forecasts have been severely...

On the comsec website the earnings forecasts have been severely downgraded - I didn't notice until today. Maybe that is why the SP has died.

EPS Forecast now 2007:0.6 2008:1.8 2009:2.5 2010:8.1

I seem to remember than EPS for 2009 was previously forecast at 9.1c. Though I think the 2010 figure has now been upgraded (? some profits delayed). I kept looking at the old figures and wondering how they arrived at them - just seemed too good to be true!

I presume the increased interest costs and poor sales in the Mandurah development have been a major factor given their debt leverage.

It would still seem that this is trading below fair value based on these figures - for a growth company (according to those forecasts!) with such a steep projected profit growth you would expect them to be trading on a PE of 20-25 to 2008 earnings - which would suggest a fair value of 36-45c. Seemed a good buy at 14c based on my projections.

Given the number of oversold companies about at the moment, is AXI better value than many others? IMO certainly a safer buy than the likes of CNP at the moment though I suspect prospects of near-term profits are better on CNP.

Any thoughts out there regarding AXI current SP (? how oversold), fair value, future SP movements, and prospects of future profit downgrades/upgrades?