"I can't see 12-15c happening given the rise in POG in AUD terms and the improvement with Simberi."
Nor can I! I see a lot of value here, which is why I am holding.
But my point in relation to a lower share price was about a possible consequence of a fall in the AUD POG due to the ending of positive seasonal influences and the lack of a black swan event to keep the gold price up. Longer term I am expecting a higher gold price, perhaps back to USD1800 in the next 3-4 years and an even lower AUD, which would make SBM the standout buy of November/December 2014.
Simberi becoming significantly cashflow positive will get the market's attention later in 2015. Notice how the fundies have been buying? They are seeing what we have been discussing and getting in while its still cheap. They are making small purchases so as not to wake up the crowd.
SBM is likely to become the first of the 10 baggers in the next gold run from of the ASX listed producers. It could easily be a 20-25 bagger off the bottom. Along the way there will be significant price gyrations.
In the meantime, patience is required.
loki
SBM Price at posting:
23.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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