update, page-85

Hi Amelius,

You want a valuation when both Suprise and Johnston come in as a commercial find???

Here is something to work from:


Assuming success for either of Ooraminna-2, Johnstone-1 and Magee-2 on a more conservative risked mean basis could impute an NPV value for Central of over 50 cents per share, pushed down by the weight of newly minted issued shares and options likely to be exercised. Discount that again, and a value of 35 cents is not untoward.

Given the 52 week share price range of Central of 7 cents to 23 cents, current or new investors in Central can be mollified they are buying near year lows - at the current share price of 6-7 cents.

Were Central to hit it big on all three wells, a valuation north of $10 per share for Central is possible. It would be the oil equivalent of doing a Paladin Energy in oil and gas. A sniff of a commercial find on any of Central?s wells and the current stock price and market valuation - look very light.

Add-in a (discounted) value for coal assets ? and this would literally catapult the valuation higher, in the process converting Central into an energy growth company category, rather than oil junior.

For now, Central gets to do what an oil junior should do, drill as many holes in the ground as possible, making discoveries and perhaps transform from explorer to producer. For investors, this is speculative ? not for the faint of heart. However, there is a sense there is longer term story for Central Petroleum, yet to play out.

In the shorter term, is there a better risked, better positioned, and better primed oil/gas play - where early results will be known within months