Hi Atomic Watchers,
ATQ Managing Director Clinton Cain and myself have been on a roadshow this week in Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne and Perth meeting with numerous shareholders, resource analysts and institutional and retail brokers.
The meetings were overwhelmingly positive and there is a great deal of support for the small-scale mining concept and the development of the Mbalawala Coal Project (which is the subject of the BFS), and for ATQ generally.
I lugged the BFS documents around with me (and my shoulders are still killing me) so everyone could see the document with their own two eyes. Those who troubled to look through it were satisified that it is a professional and comprehensive document.
Until a binding agreement is reached with the company who builds, owns and operates the power station, it is not possible to forecast the actual sale price of coal to the power station, so the BFS has assumed a very conservative estimated sale price of US$60/t, which is well below the sale price we anticipate reaching. Consequently we are confident the eventual sale price will be considerably higher and this will boost cashflow, IRR, profitability and ROI.
It is worth pointing out that the BFS relates only to the development of the Mbalawala Coal Project, which is specific to supplying 1.5Mtpa coal feedstock to a proposed 450mW power station to be built at the mine mouth.
The BFS does not address the small-scale mining program, nor does it address the longer term coal export strategy. This is additional upside, that liesoutside the scope of the BFS.
We pointed out that ATQ now has 40.2Mt in JORC Proven Reserves and 251Mt in JORC Mineral Resources, with the expectation that both reserves and resources will be significantly increased and most of the 160-320Mt "exploration target" at Mbuyura/Mkapa can be converted to resources at the completion of the near-surface drilling campaign, which will commence in December. These results are expected sometime mid 2011.
We discussed funding and the requirement to raise more capital to fund the drilling campaign and commencement of the small scale mining program, and we expect to conduct another roadshow after the AGM on 23 November to seek market support for the raising.
Also discussed was the market perception that the ATQ board needs to be strengthened as the company prepares for the transition from explorer to producer.
In short, we emphasised the fact that ATQ could be generating cash flow from coal sales as early as Feb/ March 2011. ATQ has delivered bulk samples and is hoping to sign commercial sales agreements with local customers shortly.
The BFS has been completed and it demonstrates that the proposed Mbalawala coal mine is economically feasible and commercially viable, even at a very low US$60/t sale price.
In my opinion, ATQ remains one of the best emerging coal stocks on the ASX, and provides investors with tremendous upside value. Hopefully after this roadshow (our fourth this year) the market now has a clear understanding our ATQ's development strategy and a better sense of the value upside.
Disclosure: I am a consultant who has managed ATQ's investor and public relations for the past 5 years.
Hi Atomic Watchers,ATQ Managing Director Clinton Cain and myself...
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