update

Guys - a few points re the last few trading days:

1. I will leave out reference to fundamentals as we all know what they are and the potential for "multiple upgrades" that is relating to financial upside re alternate finance arrangements, resource upgrades and IO price projections. Plus projections of All Ords being up this year.

2. TA.

My observations:

A. A channel shift has occurred and it is retracing now - given it has hit the top of a linear channel a little prematurely. All charts are a question of "time". This is a seldom thought about factor but one of the most important considerations to have a feel for, whether you are a trader or investor. I think traders see this much better than investors sometimes and they will sell down and sometimes "short" positions that they actually really want to have a long term position in but feel there is a "scalp" opportunity. Especially when low volumes are in play due to seasonal factors and you can move the SP quickly with a lot less firepower than when volumes are high.
B. The price point of .585 is very significant, Fibbonaci retracement, trend line, pivot point for Elliot Wave and channel support. Today was a classic example of a sell down (shorters and mums and dads, profit taking) on the back of the All Ords weakness. Unfortunately there is no discrimination as to who gets caught in these traps - all of the above.
C. There is a natural wave occurring which is based on some simple multiples. .15 - 30 (a double) .30 to .60 (a double)
These points will be "pivots" and are necessary for the SP to move on - as strange as that might seem.
D. The time horizon for a positive announcement is somewhere between next week and end March. I suspect that it will be well before March given what we know and in any case a run up is usually the precursor. We can safely assume that we are in an uptrend. So we have a compressed window of when a spike will occur but not quite sure when. The SP can only take a few trajectories to get to the anticipated level. Whichever time line is modeled, the current price action is consistent with the pattern that will print.

The trick to being a successful investor is to put fundamental, technical and sentiment indicators together and make a decision whether you hold or fold. It is very easy to get shaken out by a one dimensional view. We have all been there and many of us will be there again. There are no guarantees in life - but there is "risk/reward". The easier question is to ask yourself whether your upside is greater than your downside.