In reply to Bobadah:Assuming that the probability of cats every...

In reply to Bobadah:

Assuming that the probability of cats every year is independent (i.e. high cats last year were not caused by global warming and that means future cats are more likely) then the fact that

- There are higher than average cats in past few years

does not lead to

- There will be lower than average cats in the next few years.

What it lead to is:

- There will be high probability of AVERAGE cats in the next few years. As it always will be regardless of the past.

If major hurricane happens on average every 5 years (20% chance per year), the fact that we had hurricane every year for the past 3 years does not change the probability of hurricane this year from 20%.

This year hurricane don't know and can't care about whether they had elder siblings last years.