Agree Antiques.Here is some analyst info that supports that...

Agree Antiques.

Here is some analyst info that supports that thinking....

Last year analysts were widely predicting a wave of takeover activity among east coast gas companies, after a flurry of deals in the first half of 2018.

On the shortlist as takeover targets were Senex Energy (ASX:SXY), Central Petroleum (ASX:CTP), Cooper Energy (ASX:CEO), Comet Ridge (ASX:COI) and Strike Energy (ASX:STX).

Deloitte said M&A in the gas sector was “likely to be a big trend in 2018”.

Argonuat head of corporate finance Eddie Rigg said “most of the sub-billion market cap companies with reasonable 2P resources and cash flow or near term cashflow would be attractive to private equity funds”.

EY picked a 30 per cent growth in upstream deal flow.

And Credit Suisse said in February 2018 that was the hour to take out Senex.

Those fortunes were based on shortages of gas in the east coast gas domestic market, actual shortages at the Gladstone, Queensland LNG trains, and visions of Asian behemoths and US private equity allegedly wanting to secure cheap Australian assets.

But these predictions have come to naught and those organisations either declined to comment for this article or did not respond before deadline.

All of those companies remain independent today.

Why were the predictions so wrong?

Experts say the obvious buyers — the three LNG outfits in Gladstone — which have most of the viable exploration and producing land already locked away, have just been too busy to think about buying small companies which would only add very incrementally to their overall gas haul.

Wood Mackenzie analyst Dan Toleman says Santos (ASX:STO), by far the main player in Queensland gas by licence numbers, has been busy buying west coaster Quadrant.

“As the key player in the east coast gas market with a gas shortage, they’ve had their hands tied,” he told *.

APLNG this month bought the undeveloped coal seam gas project Ironbark from Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) for $213m.

And QGC has been middle-man in a spat: Arrow and its Surat Basin reserves is co-owned by Petrochina and Shell, which also owns QGC. The former wants the reserves developed soon, the latter wants it to supply cheap gas to the LNG plant.

Graeme Bethune, CEO of consultancy Energy Quest, reckons there just aren’t enough decent targets, while policy risks could put off buyers who aren’t already playing that field.

But it’s gonna get real, very soon

Armour Energy general manager Richard Fenton suspects mergers between companies are still to come.

“It would not be unrealistic to assume that there will consolidation of companies that have significant uncontracted 2P reserves and exploration upside, be those through lower risk farm-in arrangements, or pure M&A,” he told *.

“Companies that have 2P or 3P reserves and exploration tenure, companies will be highly attractive to larger companies that have the funds to accelerate production to full plant capacity in order to support their Australian domestic gas supply obligations, especially those that are already connected and producing to the east coast domestic market.”

And supply is predicted to start getting tight both for the already-stretched LNG terminals and the domestic market.