From a purely mathematical perspective, the resource upgrade/update is crucial for Kalman and should trigger a re-rating - especially in comparison to other explorers who do not have such an already so far advanced explored resource. So far, this has always been ignored by the market - at least as it seems until the "Brisbane presentation" where Dan simply pointed out that the value of the contained metal per tonne of ore has roughly tripled from 2016 to today.
Should the update justify a scoping study, then that would be the next step towards development or, in the broadest sense, production. This is where the real arithmetic begins and the current market capitalization is put in relation to possible future cash flows or the value of the resource (CU equivalent). Here, too, Dan has pointed out a possible mismatch.
In my view, Kalman is not only the "main asset" - but forms the foundation for any further SP gains. We all know that, don't we? It would be nice to start the hunt for further SP gains on a 200m market cap level. This is also the "mark" that I have in my head - something around 20c. This is not much higher than where we were 2 years ago - without everything that has happened in the last 24 months.
The next step would then be for HMX to gain appropriate market attention - which could attract further investors. The rest is possible strong drilling results or other surprises. M&A activities around Mt. Isa (including the question of how CNB will develop its Mt. Hope mining lease without cooperation with HMX - a purely "geographical" question).
This nervous up and down of the SP is normal in the run-up to such "developments" and can last for longer. For the investor with a longer-term time horizon, these are side effects. For the trader - if he is right - the opportunity to earn a few percent every now and then (and possibly to miss the really big move).
We have gained a good 100% (from 5.2 to 10.5) and are now around 8.6. That is still 65% more than 2 or 3 weeks ago. Not all that bad. Let's see where we are at the end of April. In fact, nothing has changed in the underlying story. In principle, the story has become more and more consistent over the last 12 months. What is missing now - and I agree with all the critics here - is the next step that will pull us out of this back and forth.
I wish everyone a nice - probably prolonged - weekend. DYOR
HMX Price at posting:
8.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
