I'm new to shares, but know a bit about vaccines. IMO need to be cautious re. HSV vaccine. The initial safety data are an important first step, but development of an effective herpesvirus vaccine is a difficult task. HSV has evolved to establish lifelong infection, via a combination of latency (a quiescent state without expressing targets for antibody or T-cell immunity) and immune evasion mechanisms (which counteract effects of antibody and T-cell immunity). Extrapolation of pre-clinical vaccination studies in mice to humans is complicated by immune evasion being adapted to the human host and not working effectively in mice (eg. shutdown of MHC class I, required for killer T cell recognition of virus-infected cells, is efficient in human but not mouse cells). Initial trial (very small - 5 groups of 4 per treatment ?) showed safety (expected) and T cell response (haven't seen detail re. type ('helper' / 'killer') or target) - also expected for a DNA vaccine. With those caveats, if it manages therapeutic potential (reduction of incidence/severity/duration of recurrent lesions in infected individuals) that will have huge potential. Prevention of infection is a big ask, requires efficient immunity (at ucosal surface) against targets important during the initial infection and would require a larger/longer term clinical trial than therapy.
I'm interested in investing in this company to support Oz biotech and would like to know from those who know about shares whether Cardiocel and other Adapt markets are likely to enable growth even if the HSV (and HPV) vaccine trials don't come to fruition.
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