Pro that is just so wrong, its like you overheard a conversation, but didn't understand it.
Oil production is easy to stop and start. The wells and production infrastructure are there, bringing wells back on is easy. Hours on a small field, days on large. The oil is just sitting there in reserve, waiting for the bean counters to issue the recommence instruction.
The long lead items are exploration and development, in this I agree. Long periods of under investment can lead to supply shortages and price rises, but they dont happen quickly on this basis. The rapid rises tend to be around stability and political issues.
Updated Charlie-1 target valuations Mean/Low/High, page-88
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