Well ok.
The weekly chart from the lows in early March 2020 (2.6c) to the high in early November 2021 (28.5c) which I have marked for the Fib Retracements on the candle body not the wick. I set buys at 15.5c (the blue perforated line just behind the 50% retrace) and there has not been much at that level available. The wicks have tested the 50% a few times this year and mostly held.
If they don't then definitely we are on course for the classical setup at 61.8% when we touched 12.5c in late April/early May before it bounced hard and ascended nicely, just as it did in late Jan 2021 which was it's best run of all time up to the wick reaching 28.5c before the traders dumped it down on the retrace to 22.39c. I still think the 50% remains the play based on the absolutely rubbish volumes currently, the recent placement, and in the context of the global selloff.
Very much worth remembering they announced the placement in late August 2022 just as the SP ascended through the 38.2% retrace which reversed back down through it, hence my angst at the timing as the charts were setting up for a push through the 23.6% which it touched the week of the announcement. A setback for sure, but the trend is still up and I think the market will shake off the placement blues into a Xmas rally and we'll be retesting the 23.6% just as we were when the placement was announced. News would be a helpful catalyst obviously.
If I am wrong and the gift of another 61.8% retrace comes, I still think the 12.5c will be the best you will do given the push off that level last time, the traders will find that price very easily looking at the chart below, although on volumes in recent times the traders might not want to play. I think that is probably why there's already a swell of orders at 12c already (just in case), because even if we retrace, I think the touch of 11.5c will be very thin - just guessing you have the 50,000 or 250,000 already parked at 11.5c because I will be very surprised if that gets filled this time around, if, we get there at all. That said, good luck and I wish you well, I'll be there too if we get there as I am keeping some powder dry.
Happy?
(20min delay)