Updated DFS Analysis

hi folks,

I have been interested in how the NPV analysis looks like since the DFS was issued, but with up to date parameters

There are two sheets here - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J6sHx18LkRhsbyny0EK4EDeR-BUae-53pFSrmVs2sak/edit#gid=1996851841

LTR NPV DFS - First I used DFS data to calibrate my table to try and match 4.2b NPV as per DFS data and approximated production profile from the charts. I have arrived at 4.195b which is close to the 4.234b the company provided.






LTR NPV 202303 - After this I have created a new sheet with new parameters. Few things here included:

• spod price SC6 of 3.4k static over LOM. This could be further refined with forecast spod data but this is hard to predict
• opex cost starts 490 with 7% increase each year based on current high inflation rates.
• capex cost of 895m with latest capex blowout
• dso sales of lower bound 850dmt, at CXO's rate 951 per tonne minus 30%. Spod prices came down 30% so i assume this might dip similarly. I expect LTR's DSO to be of higher grade but not an expert here
• royalty rate. taken from Anteviariels amazing analysis. Cant understand what magic happened there hence I worked out this DFS updated analysis to calm my nerves steady in this high cost of living period and unstable market while hodling 80% on LTR.
• 3.5mtpa upgrade. I took one year off LOM to compensate to balance out the increased output in the first 4 years

Assuming I got the calculations right the numbers seems as TO suggests - compelling at NPV 14b as of FID, and should be valued at north of 6$. NPV is for KV project and excludes Buldania. IMO compelling is an understatement

Would like to hear your thoughts to see if i mucked up somewhere

Disclaimer - Not financial advice. Use the document at your own risk/profit