From this NFV analysis chart
You should ask yourself if you think SC6 (not SC5.5) spod price will stick around equal or below 1.1k USD/dmt (I think this is close to Goldman's doomsday scenario) for 24 years.
I suspect we will be closer to the > 4k mark.
For spod pricing i found the following interesting common patterns though not sufficient data to work with:
https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-12/resources-and-energy-quarterly-december-2022.pdf
Perhaps we may see a short term dip for a year or two, but then if 32% deficit corresponds to record BMX sales, then we are onto early retirement starting 2031
Updated DFS Analysis, page-7
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Last
82.5¢ |
Change
-0.005(0.60%) |
Mkt cap ! $2.000B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| 82.0¢ | 83.5¢ | 81.3¢ | $9.042M | 10.97M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | 131414 | 82.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| 82.5¢ | 31205 | 3 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 18/10/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| LTR (ASX) Chart |