@govr good call.Key risk for GQG is that they do not continue to...

@govr good call.

Key risk for GQG is that they do not continue to outperform and this reduces flows.

Right now, 1 year relative performance is negative across all 4 flagship strategies. In the last month GQG has recovered a chunk of underperformance but is still negative. The 3 year and 5 year figures are more important (longer duration and more indicative of enduring performance) continue to show significant outperformance (and with lower volatility). So I am tracking short term relative returns to see how this feeds in to 1, 3 and 5 year relative performance metrics.

If GQG flows reduce over time this may reduce demand for GQG and the stock may fall.

Investors may prefer to hold cash / gold / other assets if they believe markets are dealing with too much uncertainty and the downside risk is material.

Notwithstanding this downside risk, why investors may be happy to hold/buy if they believe:

* GQG is attractive at current levels even if growth does not play out. Dividend yield of 11.9% p.a. (based on the last quarters dividend) is driven by base fees rather than less predictable performance fees. So the dividend could be maintained even if GQG did not grow.
* The market opportunity (TAM) - capital to be invested - will continue to grow
* GQG positioned to attract at least its share of flows because of its strong relative performance, investment in distribution, retention of talent (alignment)
* Tough markets offer active managers better opportunities to outperform

I note also that the stock found strong support bouncing off $1.71 and $1.73 recently