updated oil/gas wildcat best bets, page-3

Hi Acturtle,

The projections are for upside not downside. Whilst downside will exist on a duster, or various forms of profit taking, it’s irrelevant when projecting upside. Whether a wildcat chance is a 1 in 3 or 1 in 50, doesn’t affect the upside valuation projection for a strike, but it does affect whether the punt is a value bet or not. Value punting is what it’s all about.

If a punter considers Jacala 1 in 50 then they simply shouldn’t bet on the punt (for a successful strike) because in their view the SP value at the time in effect offers bad value, however, they may consider it a value bet as a “sell before spud/results” bet. Similar reasoning exists if you consider Magnolia a 1 in 3 chance.

Mensa.