Updated Ore Reserves, page-122

DYOR. Speculative valuations are intended to provide a perspective on value and upside. They are not intended as financial advice. You should do your own careful research and make your own investment decisions.
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I bought on market via my newly-minted SMSF last week.

If they stick to schedule from PFS in summary I think 5 to 12x upside in steady-state production ( around mid-2023 ).

Looking at recent resource growth I am thinking up to 10% growth in NPV driven by growth in resource and an additional 5% improvement improvement in NPV driven by project optimisation between PFS and DFS. So 15% improvement in NPV. That's my conservative or base-case view. Anything beyond that will be a bonus. Further upside will come if gold price increases.

Using the figures from the PFS I've come up with a DCF-based or NPV-based and production-based estimates. These are the assumptions:

• 15% improvement in NPV between PFS and DFS and annual after-tax profit (based on reasoning above). This is intentionally conservative.
• 30% additional dilution over the course of the payback period to achieve cashflow.

Project plan has mining and construction commencing Q3 based on the February presentation.

They had $22.85M cash end of last quarter. I am thinking they will have $17M in bank at end of March Quarter.

Base case per share using a 15% uplift in after-tax NPV is $0.123 or up to $0.319 at AUD $3,000 gold price. If a buyout occurred it would probably occur somewhere between these levels but does very much depend on what the gold price does.

At steady-state or average production assuming P/E 15.0 (ASX average) and noting gold sector is flat at the moment I think $0.40( at AUD $2,100 gold) to $0.91 (at AUD $3,000 gold) in steady-state production (around May 2023).


Note on disclosure. Limited fire power in my SMSF as there are no contributions currently going into it. If they did a rights issue would consider contributing. Current plan to free carry in 12+ months.