I won't comment on the table per se as it relates to FFXL, but nice to finally see in one of your tables a DFS type based spodumene assumption. My comments don't really change much, as they purport to AVZ but suspect LTR holders may have similar comments, to what I posted last time here:
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1. The AVZ option you have does not include floatation, which when they include that recovery rate will be somewhere around 80%.
2. The option you are modelling is stage 1, so it doesn't include the sulphate plant by the looks of it either. Obviously happens after start up just like your assumed expansion plans.
3. Does not include any expansion options which are included for MLL, where economies of scale arise (which is what you are including in the development scenarios for MLL.
4. If AVZ get their act together apparently the share is expected to increase to 75%."Can sort of understand what you are doing. As I posted in the past, plenty of room for emerging projects to enter the market and wish holders here well. If AVZ gets up it benefits other African plays, and vice versa, albeit at this stage FFX is simply focusing IMO on been a gold producer (obviously returning its attention to lithium later on).
My views on these comparison tables were essentially in here, and many other posts but have noted your spodumene price assumption increase - Post #:
46605799 I also have never liked the comparisons when posters state, which I know is not been stated here, been uncommitted is great. I posted this on the issue before AVZ got an Offtake - Post #:
46606987In production, options open up is my point and SP becomes a function of EPS/PE ratios, as a against a function of NPV as well - Post #:
46615793 and Post #:
46621437 Have been through these comparisons endlessly, and could have pulled out many otherposts etc etc, but ultimately if AVZ get up it is good for FFX, despite FFX current focus been gold production. But I can see the point of why you are seeking to do it, but as stated you are not modelling what is been proposed for each company etc etc
If your point is FFX has got a great resource etc etc and can be a viable operation, that is fine as ultimately binding Offtakes and the market decides, and by that I mean FFX can supply good quality spodumene (as is also required for the other players in the table - a DFS says yes we can do it, but ultimately physical delivery of the products needs to demonstrate quality and within DFS specs cost and profit wise to flow through to SP). The DFS showed that FFX could be viable if DFS targets are met. Too me will be interesting when FFX revisits its lithium proposal whether it tweaks it anyway.
All the best to holders. Can understand what Ubique is seeking to do - unfortunately, and to be frank, until Offtakes are signed the market essentially dismisses African projects per se, and that in itself is the real problem when it comes to these type of comparisons, especially comparisons with other Australian plays. Get an Offtake and things can change rapidly IMO, as the market then believes is my point.
As a holder in the other stock, things have essentially moved in the lat week or so, purely on market believing through the Ganfeng offtake, yes it will be mined and that is reflected in SP. Can also see what an 'Offtake' is doing for PLL and CXO as well, because NPV/IRR analysis is simply that - shows viability, but in a time value of money concept as it relates to SP, by way of the nominal indicators EPS and P/E ratios, it is all about when in production you start. That is what FFX needs with it deposit, i.e. Offtakes and timeline to production happening, and the SP will then look after itself - market believing it will get into production this side of 2025. And obviously to do that need a viable project and ensuring the product sold in production meets quality specifications.
Against all the above, in the short to medium term it seems too me FFX sees itself as a gold producer in any event, hence its SP is a function of that as against lithium. For investors, if FFX meets its objectives in gld it might be a good longer term punt IMO if you also want exposure to lithium (via a gold producer). But that is a separate debate around potential.
These are my thoughts, I know Ubique will disagree as he has done in the past, but have put them her regardless. To avoid a back and forth, as enjoy the peace, I will make this my only post as no point IMO debating this comparisontable from teh perpsctive of what is actually in it and any such deficiencies. The Table is simplyfor FFX holders to consider whether they are undervalued or not, but the real question is really speed to market etc etc. For the record, my view is AVZ needs to back its Ganfeng offtake with other offtakes and then funding to entrench the view in market it will get to mining, so the next 6 months for it are very important as a SH over there, but good to finally see that Offtake, just like I suspect allof you were happy with the movement in your gold project.
Wishing you all the best.
All IMO
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