Updated perspective on PAC Valuation (ex-GQG) - $8.375 is revised price

Hi @SP007

Thought I would take the image you posted yesterday and revalue PAC based on GQG share price of $1.805.

Here is the current value provided by PAC at AGM:

PAC's 4% stake in GQG (net of estimated 25% tax)
$1.805 x 119,121,254 shares = $215,013,863
$215,013,863 - 25% tax ($53,753,465) = $161,260,398
$161,260,398/PAC's shares on issue (51,037,552) = $3.16

Revised valuation table:
$7.45 PAC Market Capitalisation
$3.16 PAC's 4% stake in GQG (net of estimated tax)
$0.85 GQG proceed net of tax - now invested in Banner Oaks (assume 0% earned on interest previously)
$3.44 Implied Market Cap. of PAC ex-GQG

$0.45 PAC FY21 Underling NPAT ex-GQG (includes Banner Oaks 13c per annum EPS)
7.64x PAC FY21 P/E ex-GQG

If you use prior valuation of 9.7x THEN implied Market Cap. of PAC ex-GQG is $4.365
The difference between $4.365 - $3.44 = $0.925 is missing from today's closing price based on valuation at the time of AGM
This is $7.45+$0.925 = $8.375

$8.375 is the efficient market theory price ex-GQG, but we all know the market isn't efficient. This is just additional margin of safety.

One thing to note is that GQG will pay PAC similar dividends to previous years. Theoretically should be added in.

Best of Luck
Lost