I decided to update my previous summary that might be interested for holders
This snapshot is not considered as advice, just share my research and opinions.
I've compared LNG.ax with CQP (Cheniere Partners) which owns 100% Sabine Pass Project (27mtpa) as it would be simple. Cheniere Energy (LNG.us) owns other assets and exposes to gas price via Cheniere Marketing and projected to have around US$30b debt which cause significant shorting interest.
Luckily, LNG.ax would only share around US$1.4b gross debt. EBITDA of US$979m should be sufficient to serve the debt.
FERC risk is minimal, in my opinion, main risk would be remaining binding tolling agreements as short term negative sentiment in gas industry. But I believe these global energy organisations should see this as opportunity as they are supposed to focus on achieving long term goals.
Media have been spreading economic viability for Australian LNG projects, but Magnolia Project is in US, and not like most Australian LNG projects are exploded with huge capex and directly have exposed to LNG price.
Capex per mt for Magnolia project is One third less than Sabine Pass project (see below).
OSMR tech has significant advantage to save capex and operating costs.
OSMR tech has huge economic potential. LNG.ax will receive US$50m cash for OSMR license fees for Magnolia Project.
US renowned fund invested over $100m in LNG.ax with average cost around $2.33 (my calculation attached below).
China is struggling to fight with nationwide pollution, and seeking clean energy, ChinChina National Petroleum Corp) expects demand of at least 330 billion cubic meters by the year 2020 (vs.178.6 bcm in 2014). Japan has to import more LNG as nuclear disaster happened in 2011 (although slowly resuming nuclear plants but face huge amount of domestic protest).
Europe has to import more gas from US, I guess, as Russia reduced exporting to Europe due to economic sanction.
I've just found, our financial advisor and debt arranger, BNP Paribas recently bought LNG.ax, holding 2.4m on 29 September 2015.
Please don't take too serious if there is any typo.
Good luck to ALL
LNG Price at posting:
$1.64 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
