This is really interesting thank you!I was just comparing it to...

This is really interesting thank you!

I was just comparing it to my model and it seems the consensus has come in relatively similar.

The sales are a little more optimistic than what I've built in however the gross margin is the same at 65% so good to see some confidence at that level.

It seems they've factored in tax which doesn't need to be paid (due to the historical overpayment that we've been discussing) so in reality this would see the net profit come in at 6.2 million or 10c per share for FY24 which under pins the current dividend and then some.

It's interesting when you look at those FY25 figures how much of a difference the 15% sales increase would make to the valuation metrics.

If we take the consensus net income figure (removing tax that doesn't need to be paid in reality) then DSK is trading at 14 times FY24 earnings and (taking a 65% payout ratio) should pay out 4.7 cents per share in fully franked dividends (a 4.5% dividend yield).

Then looking at FY25 it's trading on 6 times consensus earnings and should be able to pay out 11.5 cents per share (once again using a 65% pay out ratio) for the next financial year which would be an 11.2% dividend yield.

If it did deliver those FY25 figures and could even get to 8 times those earnings then the SP should sit around the $1.50 to $1.60 mark.

That's not factoring in the 18 million sitting in the bank so there are some good ingredients here along with the chance of a take over offer, special dividend or buyback in the future.

As a few other posters have pointed out though in order to be bullish on the stock you have to be factoring in a strong retail recovery in FY25 rather than a prolonged downturn because when you value it based off the current trading it's really not cheap at all.

Having crunched these numbers I would say there's going to be quite a while yet of DSK trading at a depressed valuation unless the takeover interest really does crystallise.

For a stock this small I think the market will want some very clear positive momentum before perception begins to change.

It's been interesting to hear other perspectives to help clarify my thinking.