Hello brains trust,
I first bought into Dusk at the end of 2020 when their covid sales started booming, but a massive failsafe i clung to was that they were showing like for like sales growth for I believe 12+ consecutive quarters. I understood yes, covid and staying at home/free money has boosted their earnings, but the underlying trend was constantly improving and I did have a bunch of people in my life gravitating towards diffusers, reeds and candles. I was happy with my purchase and rode the shareprice up to $4 or so during the peak. As the covid effects reversed I took it as we were reverting to the mean of slow growth, and longterm things would be fine, the failsafe previously mentioned.
In the new stage of the company I understand consumer confidence is lower and things are cyclical blah blah blah. What my issue is, is that we are seeing alot of seemingly discretionary businesses doing quite well the last reporting period. Adairs has regained some losses, Lovisa is flying, Shaver shop, Myer are all doing fine. I am trying to work out if instead of Dusk feeling the pressure from consumer wallets shrinking, there is also the aspect of losing market share to other candle and fragrance makers coming into play. Im not sure how to quantify this as the competitors dont seem to be exclusively in candles, i.e. target, myer etc so we cannot see if their candle divisions are holidng up or losing the same percentage on sales as dusk, but would like to ask if anyone has any info oin this.
TLDR Are we holding market share in a downturning cycle or are we losing ground which is compounding the issue and possibly changing this story from cyclical rebound to systemic issues?
Expand
