People may be surprised when I say this, but.....the problem with coronovirus COVID-19 diagnosis is false negatives. It is the one situation where anteo diagnostic technologies might make a huge market difference and more importantly, a difference in the public interest.
COVID-19 has already mutated twice in a short space of time, in a few months only. The first time going from animal to human, and then from human to human. The problem is that it may then mutate into something more serious. And it's already serious.
People say oh it's just like the flu .
Well not really. The COVID-19 death rate estimated at only around 2% Doesn't sound much does it?
Missing the point that it's highly contagious. AND it's contagious in people with no symptoms. Who can become master carriers. People who imagine that it's just like the flu don't realise what's starting to happen. It's a pandemic because we have no known resistance because it's new. And it's still probably mutating. Different varieties of it could end up in different areas for instance.
Experts estimate an infection rate of 40-70%, You do the figures on that. The death rate at 2% is then significant. It's far from the death rate of the ordinary flu which is .1%. Which can kill but not at these rates. Its the combination which is so scary.
It's so highly infectious once it's taken hold and a patient is in the later stages, the virus is in the air, surrounding the patient, not just from droplets sneezed or coughed, which fall to the ground/surface. At the earlier point of the sneeze/cough it gets transmitted by breathing in the droplets, from close proximity, or by touching a contaminated surface, It's estimated that the virus stays viable on those surfaces for 48 hours, which is a very long time..
In the later stages in a non recovering patient overwhelmed by the replicating virus, it attacks vital organs like the lungs, causing pneumonia and serious tissue damage. It attacks vital organs like the kidneys causing renal failure. Heart, etc.
The point is it's in the air surrounding the advanced patient in a fine mist...This is why the doctors and medical staff treating the seriously sick are all decked up in full cover. It's not for fun that they're doing it.
This is quite different to ordinary complications of the flu such as secondary pneumonia. The doctor who was the heroic whistleblower in Wuhan, the opthamologist came down with the same flu he was trying to raise the alarm about, and then died..... The contagion point was he took his eye mask off briefly when treating an 82 year old patient in an advanced stage.
He would have been overworked and tired. But he was relatively young in his 30s to die.
So. This is all context.
The existing tests simply aren't sensitive enough to pick up these carriers who aren't showing symptoms.
It's a potentially grim situation, but speaking about accuracy in testing....this could be the one turnaround event that could make ADO lift off....
Or not. It all depends on who is positioned and where. We would have to be positioned to really take off almost immediately. I'm not sure Ellume is ready to launch, and not sure if we have the ear of anyone else is ready to partner on accuracy. The reason why accuracy is so important is that you have the problem of people who can become superspreaders who are transmitting the virus to others, but they don't have any symptoms and don't register a positive on the tests. Like a woman in Korea who infected about 100, or that guy in the UK who came back from a conference in Singapore and infected dozens. Symptom free themselves while they did this....Look at the implications for how widespread it could be, but without means of testing those people with false negatives and no symptoms.
There is also variable incubation periods...up to 47 days in some cases. It's a situation that is changing rapidly because it is also travelling via international travel routes. And now there are outbreaks that are occurring with no known link to Wuhan. So it's impossible to keep it out of Australia and that's why the pandemic plan has been announced.
One fun fact is that there was a 2 week delay before the Chinese government even started to recognise the problem and 5 million trips out of Wuhan during that period. Because of their mania for good news during a conference period for the Communist Party.
So given that carriers can be asymptomatic, and there is a variable incubation period there are a lot of unknowns.
Here are some references on coronavirus:
4 corners on how the virus emerged and the response in China. which is chilling. The bodies, the exhaustion of medical staff, exhaustion of supplies, and actual welding shut of the building door of apartment blocks. This is not for the faint hearted. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycrqXJYf1SU
this is about the 1918 Spanish flu the main points of interest being the mutations of that flu, and the mistakes made early on and the unique situation being replicated in terms of the huge movement of people. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDY5COg2P2c
I've been going on about POC being a vanity project and a waste of funds, and that has been true IMO until now. Because of the market resistance to uptake and the lack of economics.
This is an exceptional public interest situation which might change all of that. MIGHT.
And I don't post just for fun or to just talk the stock down or up. Or to be mean or have an effect on the SP.
I post for balance in discussion or if I think something is being missed. And for the sake of fairness.
ADO is a speculative stock but people have posted with huge conviction as if it's about to take off many times. It would be great if this company actually performed and actually rose to the occasion.
I note that the new pandemic plan to be implemented by the Australian government includes fast tracking of a vaccine. That's a promising lifting of red tape. It would be nice if we could get that with regulations over coronavirus testing.
ADO Price at posting:
2.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)