I for one am grateful Roger is updating us through his twitter. Looking at that last update - It's like he lurks here............... Thanks Roger, if you're reading this
People are emotional creatures. When we were all up and about just last week, there was back slapping and all sorts of great vibe going on. It's natural for people to retreat when their chips (appear, or are) down. They clam up, stop posting and start questioning the very thing that got them here. They think all of a sudden they might be wrong. bugger. sit tight and don't say anything is always the answer, it might get better..... Same goes for companies.
When Serra went foul last year, there was no word from the Co. Deft silence in fact. Results from the drill got passed through a quarterly after being so late it was obvious it was dust. SP didn't even look like ramping up at any time throughout the whole campaign.
So who would be the quietest at this time if things were bad. The man, on the ground watching the clay pour out of little holes, and watching it get bagged, labelled and shipped out for assay. What's he up to? Keeping us informed, more regularly than we could expect.
IMO If things were bad, we wouldn't hear boo from site. We wouldn't be told assays got shipped to Peb and to expect them at EOM (supporting Co statement in the ANN), and no update to 24/7 drilling, no pics of processing the samples. Nada. He is going above and beyond. How much confidence would you need to go to those lengths? What kind of barrage would he get if the results weren't as expected? Would he sign up for that? I wouldn't. He's even posting pictures of massive pythons - he's gotta be in a good mood!
I see nothing on the chart that hints at selling, other than short term indicators showing a sideways trade pattern. In fact it reinforces what numerous analysis/TA informs us.
I see the chart, right now at textbook. If it turns, don't worry, I'll put it up.
Volume in handle should be light — depth of the handle should be 10%-12%, should form in upper half of base. Peak of handle should be within 15% of old high on left side of cup.
The handle should be a mild pullback on relatively light volume. It's a shakeout of weaker holders — those not committed to holding the stock longer term. A sharp decline of more than 12%-15% on heavy volume could indicate a more serious sell-off that might prevent the stock from launching a successful move
Who are the weaker holders getting shaken out in the handle? Typically, they're investors who bought late, right at the end of the prior uptrend. (See Point 1, above). When the stock sold off to form the left side of the base, they suffered a sharp loss. Getting a profit is no longer their goal. They just hope to recoup some of their losses. So as the stock nears that old high — and the weaker holders' break-even points — they start to sell.
Here's why that shakeout is healthy: If you have a lot of weak holders in a stock, whenever the share price rises, they jump in to sell, which pushes the price back down. Once they're out of the picture, it's easier for the stock to move higher.
And what about the big investors who've been picking up shares as the stock formed the right side of the cup? They're more committed and are holding onto their shares. That's why the volume in the handle is light: Only the weaker holders are selling. The large institutional investors are sitting tight in expectation of a new upward climb.
I expect the handle to trade at 1.5 - maybe touch 1.4,
that's normal.
Coupled with the input from Oldgeo, grundle and others, I'm still full of beans..
But again, I appreciate every tid-bit of info Roger brings us, and it does nothing more than reinforce (IMO) things are on target.
GL, DYOR and whatever other disclaimer should go here.
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