Prophet, Good post, we should not use semantics to reinforce “behind the scenes” happenings with GSK on the go to promote Relenza and Lani. We should use FACTS and figures, mathematics and science to see where BTA is heading.
Let us look at the prediction of $30M Relenza royalties in coming years. This prediction defies the fact that Relenza had missed the pandemic stock piling bonanza. Pandemic stockpiling commenced in earnest from around mid 2005 and by sheer luck not long after BTA sued GSK. Let the Relenza sale figures be our guiding light. (Sales in Million/ $royalties in millions) Jun06 ($42M/ M$3.4); Sep06 ($72.3/$5.4); Dec06 ($89.1/$7.3); Mar07 ($220.8/$16; Jun07($158.2/$11.1); Sep07 ($63.9/$4.5); Dec07 ($171.4/ $12); Mar08 ($52.5/ $4.4); Jun08 ($6.2/ $0.4) What do the figures show? A fast shrinking pandemic stockpiling market!! What is $4.4M per quarter to $220Mper quarter - shrunk to 2% of its peak!!
While GSK had to be threatened by the loss of Patent protection to supply Relenza; Tamiflu sales soared from about the second or third quarter of 2005. However Tamiflu sales in the past 12 months shrunk to a fraction of 10% of the peak showing very clearly the pandemic bonanza has gone! Instead of settling with GSK and jumping on the bonanza train, Peter Cook steadfastly turned down the $100M settlement offer, After spending $35 to $40M and when the bonus had about disappeared, he settled for $20M.
Ah ha – now Relenza is perfectly positioned to replace expired pandemic stock!! Look at the facts – the bulk of the pandemic stock was supplied in the 2 years from 2006 peaking in 2007. And what is 5 years from 2006? Yes, it is 2011 – and Gillead will be there making special deals to replace their expired Tamiflu at a deep discount!
Wouldn’t it be good to get brokers who kept their $30M p.a. royalties prediction to justify the figures when sales for the June 08 quarter had fallen to $6.2M
Did I read Peter Cook blaming the $0.4M royalties to low season flu in the Northern hemisphere? If you believe that, you have to have rocks between the ears. Relenza sales are ALL to the pandemic stock piling market. Seasonal flu sale royalties are close to zilch – why? Yes, the GSK “long standing relationship” was to tell potential clients Relenza was ineffective and in fact out right dangerous. (Read GSK’s reply to BTA’s claims for full details).
No semantics here – plain hard facts and figures: 2006 was the best ever time to bag the GSK $100M offer. The pandemic stockpiling train had left and the only thing left in the track is a whiff of smoke in the distant horizon.
BTA Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
