upgraded gdv

UOADB have upgraded their estimated GDV to RM15.7b over the next five to seven years. http://my.news.yahoo.com/uoa-eyes-rm4b-property-sales-011103309.html

I've just done a very rough UOS valuation.

Assumed that GDV turns out to be RM14b over 7 years, so RM2b/year.

$NPAT attributable to UOS/year = RM2b*0.7(UOS share)*0.3(RM to $)*0.35 (profit margin)*0.7 (tax) = $103m/year from UOADB

Add $25m/year NPAT from REIT and retained property at parent level = $128m/year.

This equates to 11.5c/share NPAT over the next seven years, on what I think is a conservative valuation. I think a reasonable P/E once a few years into the larger scale operations they are expecting would be from 10 - 14, so in very rough terms, I would expect somewhere between $1.15 and $1.61 per share somewhere in the next 3-7 years.

Could be better if new projects or revaluations add to GDV, or if GDV is realised closer to the 5 year mark than the 7 year mark.