Legend, thanks for your comments, but I must question your comment:
"upside on the other hand is pretty limited"
A few points from where I see it:
- I think it is already evident that any offer for KAH will require an automatic downstream offer for EXT and my understanding is that an application for exemption would be required and then need approval.
- I suspect most of the big guys are waiting for someone to make the first move, and also waiting for the ML to de-risk the project, so the "lack of a white knight" really means very little at this time
- looking at other T/O metrics in recent times, we have Hathor and Mantra Res. Mantra went through @ the equiv of about $9.90/lb; the Hathor auction stands @ $11.15/lb. From my understanding of Mantra, the resource was not wildly different to Husab. Hathor's Roughrider is acknowledged as high grade, but it will be technically difficult to mine (ie higher cost). In a recent interview, Tom Albanese made comments to the effect that Rio are looking at the Hathor deal with a view to bringing it into production around or after 2020. So what will Rio do to plug the gap between now and then? - Rossing is becoming a geriatric patient and Ranger is in the ICU - so what for Rio's Energy Division between now and 2020?
I acknowledge there may be the potential for a multibagger at DYL, and for those who got in early, it might be worth looking elsewhere now,but irrespective of that, Husab is anything but lacking upside IMO. Still carrying some risk? Yes (and the media today about Epangelo adds to the sovereign risk question and I also question transparency being provided to all concerned around the ML status with the Chinese talking to Epangelo); Lacking Upside? No.
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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