Just thought id highlight this here, as t is a pertinent time to do this, with impending drill.
This slide tells us a lot.
It tells us the area/extent of the mapped LD structure.
It tells us the high case scenario of 1.1 TCF rec GIP has a mapped closure area of 60 km2
The narrative tells us the fill to spill (remember those words from somewhere?) scenario is 100 km2....which takes us up to around 1.7 TCF in high case (im just using linear extrapolation).
It does not tell us the thickness of K and HC that was used in the resource estimation...(for reference, In estimation of WE, I think the area of closure was 26 km2? - please correct me if im wrong - so, if my areas are right, by inference, that means they were using a much thicker value for the Kingia than NWE is using here).
It was also prepared long before current drilling campaign at WE, where lots of new info came to light...fll to spill, Kingia thickness, gas in secondary targets...pressures.
NWEs share of all these numbers is 20% (per table).
Just to make it more explicit re: upside...in a "full to spill" scenario - LD could be over 2TCF in the high case. idk what thickness they have attributed to the K and HC, but mapped high case closure is 60 km2, and full to spill is 100 km2 - thats double and four times the pre 2019 mapped WE closure. We dont know how thick the K and HC are going to be until we drill them...and no one has drilled them here. They cant say much about that. So in the end, you can infer from their assumptions this can be much bigger than the current conservative estimates they have made.
Idk how big the structure is in the wagina, but you could add another 0.5+ TCF for that.
In the meantime, a 20% JV partner with no money hanging on when you have something big, may not be ideal for the party with the bigger pocket. So you would look at taking their share at the optimal time. It is common sense that you always buy cheap and when theres lots of unrealised value left in the acquisition. And best time to do this is in the early stages of euphoria, where theres enough "uncertainty" to legitimately downplay the potential. That's the game.
All this is speculative at this stage...this is a speculative stock...we have not drilled LD - no one has, so it will be new. In a month or so, it will all come to light, and hopefully NWE SH can hang in there and maximise our upside...DYOR
NWE Price at posting:
1.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
