upside vs downside potential

Current Cash value per share is said to be at 17.6 c/share.

Potential Value
1) Heron, Blackwood (100%) At this stage we can only speculate the type of farm in deal Jurgen may deliver on these 2 leases. Jurgen in his letter to shareholders on the 30th April stated, The 3D seismic surveys over Blackwood (2008) and Heron (2007) have revealed the potential for multi-Tcf gas resources in NT/P68.

As MEO has 100 % interest in these 2 proven discoveries, what sort of deal can the MEO team deliver during this next farm out process, given the current deal realised with Petrobras. This will depend on the results of MEO firming up resource estimates, MEO could once again receive a big cash injection similar to the cash obtained for the Artemis deal. The risk involved in these leases would surely be less than Artemis putting MEO in a reasonable bargaining position yet again. Value per share ?

2) Then as stated in the letter to shareholders MEO has continued to explore ways to move ahead with the Tassie Shoal Methanol Project (TSMP), and the Timor Sea LNG Project (TSLNGP) proposed for Tassie Shoal. Value per share ?

3) If the first Artemis well is successful, this will inject another 31.5million US, which equals 6.6c/share.

4) Plus then the upside value of the Artemis discovery. Value per share ?

I think the value of MEO at present represents great value for investors. The share price at present I feel is very depressed compared to MEOs cash position and potential value over the next 6 months.

The way Jurgen and the team use the current cash reserves on new projects or ventures could also make a massive difference to shareholder value.

Even if Artemis was a failure the current Value per share must be at least what the share price is currently trading at, so downside value per share is limited. However judging by the current share price I would still expect MEO to take a pounding with a negative drill result. Still overall the Value per share from fundamental research would still prevail around current prices.

As a top 20 shareholder I believe MEO offers a good risk/reward ratio at present prices. I am a little puzzled at the continual downward pressure on MEOs share price. However in 6 months time I might be surprised by the rise of the MEO share price also.

Interested in others thoughts especially on the potential terms of a farm out on NT/P68.