re: uranium ~ another man's opinion pt 2.......
.......Paul van Eeden, yet again, one week later.
Uranium Part II October 01, 2004 In response to last week’s column on uranium I received several emails asking which uranium stocks people should invest in. I appreciate the emails but frankly, it’s quite silly to think that I can give you specific investment advice for your portfolio based on an email that says: “Which uranium stocks should I buy?”
Answering that question would be irresponsible of me as I don’t know anything about the requestor’s financial position, age, employment, risk tolerance, etc. And even if I did answer the question with a simple “XYZ Corp.”, it would hardly be of any benefit without an explanation of why I like the company.
I will say that there are very few high-quality uranium companies out there today. Most of the so-called uranium companies are nothing more than unsuccessful gold, or silver, or copper, or nickel, or platinum, or palladium ambulance chasers that have found a new ambulance to chase, and are therefore on their way to a crash-site.
That is not to say that one cannot make a lot of money tagging along for the ride, but you have to know when to let go and jump off; and such advice is not within the scope of this column. As I have said many times in the past, you can read what I think for free in this column; however, if you want to know what I do with my own money, you will have to subscribe to my newsletter. Details can be found at www.paulvaneeden.com.
What I will tell you is that the six-hundred-pound-gorilla in the uranium business is Cameco Corporation* (CCO on the Toronto Stock Exchange and CCJ on the New York Stock Exchange).
Cameco’s shares have risen more than sixty-seven percent since May this year and the stock can hardly be called a bargain. It was a bargain four years ago when I recommended it (a copy of the article is on my website at www.paulvaneeden.com in the Library Section) because it was trading for thirteen times earnings, four times cash flow, fifty-five percent of book value and paying a three percent dividend. Since then the stock has increased by almost six hundred percent, so it’s fair to say that the easy money has been made.
Nonetheless, I do think the uranium price will continue to rise for the foreseeable future, barring any nuclear “accidents”. And that implies that the share price of Cameco should continue to do well. So if you want some exposure to the uranium market without doing any more due diligence than the free advice you can get on the Internet, which, by the way, is usually worth just about what you pay for it, then Cameco might be all you need to know.
In addition to being the world’s second largest uranium mining company it is also one of the few companies involved with the downstream processing of uranium, which means that it will not only benefit from a higher uranium price but also from the potential increase in the beneficiation of uranium before it can be used by utilities to generate electricity.
There is a growing global realization that it will be impossible to meet the requirements of the Kyoto Agreement without resorting to a major shift towards nuclear power generation. Nuclear power is not only a clean source of energy, it is an abundant source of energy. And it might be a more prevalent source of energy than what many people realize.
There are four hundred and forty nuclear power plants currently operating in thirty-one counties. Sixteen percent of global electricity production comes from nuclear power plants and thirty nuclear reactors are currently under construction in eleven countries.
In addition to these commercial reactors, there are two hundred and eighty research nuclear reactors in fifty-six countries with more under construction. And over one hundred and fifty ships are being propelled by more than two hundred nuclear reactors. Indeed, nuclear fuel is more prevalent than what most people realize. And it just shows you that nuclear power generation is not only clean, it is also a lot safer than what certain special interest groups would like the world to believe.
The massive increase in the uranium price that we saw during the Seventies was caused by fear that the market would not be able to supply utilities with sufficient fuel to power their commercial reactors. In response, the utility companies started stockpiling uranium and this only added to the current demand, which drove the spot price of uranium through the roof.
Current annual demand for uranium is approximately one hundred and seventy million pounds while mine production is only about seventy five million pounds. If utilities panic again, and it is quite likely that they will since the cost of uranium fuel is a very small part of the cost of running a nuclear power plant, then we could easily see the current demand for uranium increase dramatically.
Given the tight supplies, a further increase in demand from the utilities would blow the lid off the uranium price and we’ll see a replay of the Seventies, when the uranium price exceeded forty dollars a pound.
But it would be dangerous to assume that the uranium price will continue to rise without interspersed gut-wrenching corrections. Keep that in mind, because the uranium price has increased almost three-fold in less than four years without a correction -- one is overdue.
As with any market, and all speculations, we have to try to keep our wits about us. It’s not always easy: greed and fear are both powerful motivators. But it is fun.
Paul van Eeden
SMM Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Not Held
