MARKET BALANCE CHANGED Uranium poised for strong rally - RBCCM Spot uranium market for 2008 suddenly sees market balance shift to a deficit, and could be “set for a strong rally”.
Author: Barry Sergeant Posted: Wednesday , 05 Mar 2008
JOHANNESBURG -
Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets is telling clients that "we think the sentiment of the uranium market has changed substantially in a very short period . . . our 2008 market balance estimate has shifted to a deficit (from a balanced market) and we think the spot market is set for a strong rally".
RBC CM puts its observations down to three recent events: Uranium One (UUU CN, C$4.90 a share) reducing production guidance from its Dominion mine in South Africa by 1.5m pounds a year; AngloGold Ashanti warning it may have to declare force majeure, and, Uranium Participation Corp. (U CN, C$11.65) buying 900,000 pounds on the spot market.
RBC CM's forecast for spot uranium prices over the next two years is $110/lb in 2008 and $100/lb in 2009. Uranium prices moved up from around $7/pound eight years ago to a peak of $136/pound in late June, 2007 and then fell sharply. This week, quotes were around $74/lb (down $1/lb on the previous week), according to Ux Consulting, a specialist uranium consultancy; peer group TradeTech this week quoted $73/lb (down $2/pound). The long term expectation for both Ux and TradeTech remains at $95/lb.
RBC CM notes a "very busy" spot uranium market over the past week, with 40% of the month's total transacted. Ux believes the market may have found its "sweet spot" between $70 and $75 per pound. Recently, suppliers have been raising prices, resulting in the increased spot price indicator. Ux believes the increased spot market activity can be read two ways: (1) the aggressive sellers are sold out and the market is firming; or (2) there was a large amount of material sold between $70 and $75 and it will take lower prices to move additional material.
Ux also notes that utilities were not the primary buyers in February (accounting for about 20%); it was rather traders, hedge funds and investment funds (e.g. Uranium Participation Corp.) that accounted for the bulk of activity.
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