This is a similar narrative spoken by a number of so called experts. The general consensus seems to be that -
- U sector will do well in next couple of years
- We are at the beginning of the "well" phase
- The drop now is healthy as well as opportunity to load up
But I believe it is trying time for a number of people. What if they are getting it wrong, have we got into a losing proposition. Which is valid, and I feel each of us will deal with it based on our financial position and the risk/reward which we feel is involved. As is evident, some are buying, others selling and many on a hold state - watching. Although the story is very believable, it is unclear how the chapters of that story will be written. Hence that uncertainity and anxiousness for some. So we may see some hesitant trades as we observed this week. Will it fall further before going up or we are close to bottom.
Personally I feel we are close to bottom. The foremost reason for me is that the whole increase in SP for number of U shares happened because of increase in Spot Price. That was the number one reason. Now we have seen that the Spot Price has fallen from over 50 to now below 40. But the last few drops in Spot Price did not mean that SP is falling. Why? Because the narrative has changed. Political leaders are moving towards U sector - a example being Japan, England, etc. So the belief is coming that this narrative will become stronger in polical world, and it will then eventuate into Economic sector, and then we will get into the boom which many are talking about,
For us, it was a week where we are sitting right in the middle. All week we traded between 6 and 7c, with close of 6c, 6c, 6,2c, 6.3c, 6.4c. So 6.2 sits in middle. We traded roughly 250m shares which would be 50m per day. This is still very significant and shows the interest in AGE. The shorters targeting AGE also shows we are of interest to many. When the good times come, this interest may turn into significant gains as well. There may be AGE related news which will give us some breaks but overall macro may still rule. Due to my personal situation I feel I can continue to hold/buy at these levels, but for others it may be different. Also if it goes down significantly further, my situation might also change. I am still bullish, just not on my knowledge, but listening to many others who would be much more informed than me. All of them could be proven, but for now I am happy to be on their side. All the best and lets see if next week brings any change to trading pattern. Please dyor as we have seen we are in volatile area.
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