Weekly Review U Stocks - 28th Jan 2022
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of other U stocks besides AGE. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis.
Here is the Figures and Charts that I would be elaborating:
Weekly Review
Key Observations:
Weekly Percentage change
- Most stocks in decline. Only stocks up were AEE and TOE, both part of Global Fund inclusion
- Across 15 U stocks I am tracking -the average percentage loss was 10%. Last week there was another loss of 9%.
- After 4 weekly gains , now we have had 2 weeks of losses
- AGE lost 14% for the week. Last week AGE had lost 10%
- Friday we had a small rally, else the weekly figures would have looked more tragic
- The Percentage of weekly losses has been bigger than the percentage of weekly gains - so we are losing ground
- This week, nearly all ASX stocks got a beating, so we cannot attribute this to U stocks in specific
Yearly Percentage change
- Most stocks are in red for the year
- Average loss for 15 stocks I track is now 10%. So not a good beginning to the year
- For the current year, only AEE, AGE and TOE in positive territory. Again to be noted they are part of Global fund inclusion
- AGE is marginally in front with gain of 4% for the year. Last week AGE was ahead with 20% gain, so we lost fair bit
- Last week we were sitting with 0% gain, so there was no loss
Percentage Drop from Highest SP reached after Boom Start
- All stocks much below their highest SP
- Average drop is 46% (last week was 40% - so further loss here)
- AGE has dropped 50%. So now we are nearly in line with others
- To note - In previous weeks Explorers were further down compared to Developers/Producers - that gap is also being closed
IMPORTANT NOTE
- Explorers are most volatile
- So chances are if things go well, they may provide highest gain
- Conversely, if things don't go well, they may have larger drops compared to others
- So an individuals risk appetite should determine which U stocks they want, based on their expectation of belief in the boom
- Shares are in a downtrend
- Shares included in Global Funds ETFs may do better than other U stocks
Personally
- I had only a few trades this week
- I have only picked one lot of AGE - still waiting to pick up the shares I sold couple of weeks back
- Also sold some more LOT
- Did not buy anything else
- On an average, my holding is now 20% less in U stocks as it was say a few weeks back. Most of these are my trading stocks
Weekly Ahead
SP
- After 4 weeks of Uptrend, we have now had 2 weeks of downtrend
- AGE had made some good gains couple of weeks back. We have given back that gain
- The key numbers for me, based on trading pattern and numbers that I follow are - 5.1, 5.9c , 6.7c, 7.8c. We need to cross 5.9c and move towards 6.7c.
- I am hoping that with some strong buying, plus if ASX behaves, then there is a chance we may finish in 7s for the week
- DOW/ASX is very volatile. Lots of talks around corrections/bear/recession etc. So we may see some more turbulence this week before it settles
U Futures Price
- Price has moved at 44.85 - a loss of 55c from last week of 45.40. So now two weeks of decline
- Sprott has continued to buy more this week but very small
- I feel we price will hover around this level
- Other factors will need to drive the Spot price, Sprott taking over fund, NYSE listing, EU taxonomy etc
- For short term, I can't see any catalyst good enough to give a big boost
Prediction
- I think we are now in a very volatile phase due to DOW plunging so caution is required. This is the same thing I wrote last week, and the DOW/ASX as well as U stocks have proven that it has remained for this week as well
- US stocks are really not doing well and it has a big effect on ASX U Stocks
- Many of the ASX U Stocks reached their late September 2021 figures. So we have nearly wiped out 4 months of gains. It will take now some time to get it back
- Overall the sector is not doing well - in the short term. Many to note based on what strategy they have. I know many have long term strategy so it may not affect them that much, but there is no denial that the sector in January is not where I or many others had thought it will be 4 months back say in September - so that's a reality and some disappointment
- I feel it will be a topsy turvy week and we may see some wild swings
- I still don't see any strong bullish sentiment regarding U Future Price rise - most punters are resigned to this now
- If ASX rebounds strongly, we could see some healthy gains
- AGE and a few others because of inclusion in Global Fund may perform better than other stocks
(20min delay)